Voters in Hedge End have 3.24 times more Voting Power than the UK Average

Voters casting their ballot in the general election in Hedge End on Thursday 6 May have 3.24 times more voting power than the average person in the UK – at least according to the Voter Power Index.

The Index is based on research by the new economics foundation (nef) and argues that only voters in marginal constituencies – of which it reckons there are less than 20 percent in the UK – can influence the choice of MP.

The value of an individual vote is measured on how likely it is that the seat will change hands and the size of the constituency.

Whereas the Index puts the value of the average person’s vote in the UK at 0.253, here in Hedge End it’s equal to 0.818 of a vote and putting Eastleigh constituency at number 38 in the list of the 650 constituencies in the UK – the 38th most likely to change hands and scoring a ‘very marginal’ rating.

This is with the constituency at 74,163 larger than the average size of 68,433 voters, and which cuts down the influence of an individual voter.  

Voter Power believes that most people live in safe seats and predicts with ‘almost’ certainty that 60% of seats will not change hands.

Nic Marks from nef and who set up the Index is campaigning for political reform and the introduction of proportional representation. He calls first past the post voting a ‘rotten system’ and says that in the 2005 election more than half of all voters voted against their winning MP.

In Eastleigh in 2005 61.67% of those who voted didn’t vote for the MP who’s represented us for the past five years, Lib Dem’s Chris Huhne.

The constituency where voters will have the most influence, according to Voter Power, is Arfon in North Wales (represented until 12 April by Plaid Cymru’s Hywel Williams). Votes here are said to have the equivalent power of 1.308 of an average vote and to be worth 5.17 times the national average.  

At the other end of the scale a vote in the constituency of Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill in north Lanarkshire (and where Labour’s Tom Clarke is again standing) is worth 0.004 votes, and has 50 times less voting power than the average UK voter. 

Well, it’s a theory...

Any thoughts on this out in Hedge End?

nef describes itself is an ‘independent think-and-do tank that inspires and demonstrates real economic well-being’.

Photo of the House of Commons Chamber from Flickr, by UK Parliament.